Survival Probability Calculator

Tool developed for survival prediction in Treatment Naive Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC)

Background:

We developed an integrated clinico-genomic prognostic nomograms combining clinical prognostic factors with copy number alteration (CNA)-based risk scores in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). The CNA-based risk score is calculated using a patented, liquid biopsy-derived 11-gene CNA signature that stratifies patients into low- and high-risk groups.

The 11-gene CNA signature includes: gains in AR, MYC, COL22A1, PIK3CA, PIK3CB, and NOTCH1 and loss in TMPRSS2, NCOR1, ZBTB16, TP53, and NKX3-1.

This tool provides 1-, 2-, and 3-year individualized predicted survival probabilities.

Instructions:

All parameters must have been measured at baseline prior to initiating any treatment for mCRPC
Enter available patient parameters below
If a parameter is not available, uncheck the box
Click 'Calculate' to generate survival predictions

Patient Parameters

Parameters measured in treatment-naïve mCRPC samples

PSA (Prostate-Specific Antigen)

PSA (ng/mL):

ALP (Alkaline Phosphatase)

ALP (U/L):

LDH (Lactate Dehydrogenase)

LDH (U/L):

Risk Score

Low Risk High Risk

The multi-gene risk group is derived from a composite score based on copy number alterations in an 11-gene panel

Nomogram

Clinical Parameters

Survival Probabilities

This tool provides predicted survival probabilities based on Cox proportional hazards models.

For research purposes only. Validate before clinical use.

Please cite this work in your publications:

Huang J, Du M, Soupir A, Wang L, Tan W, Kalari KR, Kilari D, Park J, Huang CC, Kohli M, Wang L. Plasma Copy Number Alteration-Based Prognostic and Predictive Multi-Gene Risk Score in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer. Cancers (Basel). 2022;14(19):4714. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers14194714

Fadlullah MZH, Nix D, Herberts C, Maurice-Dror C, Wyatt AW, Schmidt B, Fairbourn B, Tan AC, Wang L, Kohli M. Multi-gene risk score for prediction of clinical outcomes in treatment-naïve metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer. JNCI Cancer Spectrum. 2025;9(2):pkaf025. https://doi.org/10.1093/jncics/pkaf025

Kohli M, Shankar A, Lloyd J, Wang L, Huo X, Fadlullah MZH, Tan AC, Finkelstein J. Clinico-Genomic Nomograms for Estimation of Survival Risk in Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer. JNCI Cancer Spectrum. Under review.